Accelerating Carbon Abatement

The latest projections from 440 Megatonnes, a project of the Canadian Climate Institute, warn that Canada is on track to fall more than two decades behind its emissions goals, and would be lucky to reach its 2030 target by 2050, with net zero nowhere in sight. The analysis frames higher emissions as a policy choice, noting that climate measures have demonstrably worked but that governments have weakened, delayed or cancelled policies that would have delivered more progress. Modelling conducted with Navius Research, including the impact of the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding, finds national emissions remaining stubbornly high, largely because proposed changes are unlikely to fix existing problems with industrial carbon pricing, the single largest driver of reductions. While the federal government has promised further measures on carbon pricing, electric vehicle sales and grid expansion, their final details and effectiveness remain undetermined. The authors also caution that weaker policies will struggle to offset new carbon-intensive projects, estimating that a proposed West Coast oil pipeline could add roughly 20 megatonnes of annual emissions, and they stress that this trajectory is not inevitable if governments adopt stronger, more balanced climate policy... Click below to read more